When most sports try to improve handicap sports, they tend to look at positive past results. I mean, why wouldn’t you? Do you think we sportsmen want to bet money on a team that’s 2-12 playing a team on a playoff streak, in a must-win game that’s 10-4? Of course not! Has no sense! Or if?
Past performances are undoubtedly the only way to add value to a team. When we assume that a team will play well is when a team at that moment is actually playing well. Let’s look at week 10 of the 2009 NFL season. The Pittsburgh Steelers began the week with an impressive 6-2 record. They were also undefeated at home with a 4-0 record. They faced a surprisingly decent Cincinnati Bengals team. The Bengals had been playing in over their heads. The Steelers were coming off their sixth straight win, including a road win the week before against an impressive Denver Broncos team. This information would bring most players to the betting window putting a ton of money on the Steelers!
Not only where the Steelers 4-0 that season played at home, they also had a 90% win rate in 8 years when they played at home. The facts where grim to say the least. Las Vegas’ money was on the Steelers 74% to 26%. However, the Vegas line only moved half a point in 6 days! For whatever reason, Vegas went against the gambling public, it went against these lopsided statistics, it went against a thousand trends pointing in Pittsburgh’s favor. Well guess what happened? The Cincinnati Bengals came to Pittsburgh and won the game 18-12. The Bengals got 6.5 points they didn’t even need. They did what Vegas thought and covered the spread.
