Three of the four teams in the NFC South have a legitimate shot at winning the division. The Atlanta Falcons are the only team out of the race, but this is considered a rebuilding year for them. They have already named former Boston College standout Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback.
A first-rate rookie quarterback is a microcosm of his team. Like his team, he’s not ready to stand out in the league. Like his team, he will take regular weekly rhythms. Like his team, he will make costly mistakes. And like his team, he works in the hope that his ordeal will make him better in the long run.
History suggests the opposite scenario.
Since it takes a couple of years to fully learn an NFL playbook, starting rookie quarterbacks usually learn as they go, working behind mediocre offensive lines while trying to read aggressive defenses led by aggressive coordinators. Physical and mental beatings, magnified by an ever-growing media, are more likely to break a young quarterback than make them stronger. Just ask David Carr. Gold Alex Smith.
I said all that so I can say this: Atlanta is probably making a mistake starting Ryan. But it wouldn’t be the first time the Falcons have made a bad quarterback call (Michael Vick, anyone?).
In the NFC South open, only one thing is certain: the Falcons will finish last.
New Orleans Saints
There are a lot of questions with this team, one of which is this: Will Reggie Bush become the endorsement everyone thought he would be? Whether that justifies his salary or not, this team is loaded offensively. Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, Marques Colston and a rejuvenated figure of Jeremy Shockey to put a lot of points on the scoreboard. But can they stop anyone?
Circle this date: October 26, vs. San Diego (in London). Drew Brees doesn’t have a crossword to say about the team that passed him on in favor of Phillip Rivers, but you can bet he’s looking forward to this game.
Outlook: I don’t think this team is a fluke. Sean Payton has built a team that prides itself on toughness and consistency. I look forward to seeing them at or near the top of the division for years to come.
Projected finish: 11-5, good enough for the best in the division. And maybe even a win in the first round of the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There’s something about Jeff Garcia that teams seem to dislike. He was scrapped in his prime by the 49ers. He was run out of town in Cleveland and Detroit. And after a Pro Bowl season that seemed to herald a career renaissance for him, the Buccaneers tried to land recently retired Brett Favre. If he wasn’t married to the 2004 Playboy Playmate, Jeff might feel a little insecure.
Circle this date: November 30, vs. New Orleans. Garcia and Drew Brees meet in a game that could have serious playoff implications.
Outlook: Defensive toughness will make up for the Bucs’ lack of a consistent running game. Garcia has another solid season, but at 38, how many solid seasons does he have left?
Projected finish: 10-6.
carolina panthers
Let’s see … a quarterback coming off Tommy John surgery, a star receiver serving a two-game suspension, the lack of a proven running back … it doesn’t look good. But John Fox knows how to do more with less, and the Panthers always seem to be in the thick of things near the end of the season.
Circle this date: September 21, at Minnesota Vikings. This should be Steve Smith’s first game back from a suspension (imposed by the team after Smith broke his teammate’s nose in a brawl). Expect you to have a breakout game.
Outlook: The Panthers have talent, but there always seems to be something getting in their way. This year, there are several things. Jake Delhomme’s elbow, Smith’s shortened season, a revamped offensive line and a decimated defensive line.
Projected finish: 8-8.
atlanta falcons
When your best player gets kicked out of the league and taken to Leavenworth, you’re in trouble. These guys have problems. They have a rookie quarterback in Ryan, a running back (Michael Turner) who hasn’t been tested as a starter, and they’ve had several key losses on both sides of the ball.
Circle this date: October 5, at Green Bay Packers. This is my annoying special. If the Falcons can pull this off, they could even turn it into a two-game winning streak with an Oct. 12 win over the Chicago Bears. Hey, anything is possible. Kevin Garnett said so.
Outlook: Grim. This is probably the worst team in the National Football League.
Projected finish: 3-13.
