Among the many concerns surrounding oil production, one of the biggest is when the world will reach the peak of oil production. Some researchers believe that this may occur within the next two years. But a recent article written in Sweden says that it is more likely not before 2018. What this means is that oil production will continue on the path that it has, although in some places it will increase, until it reaches its peak. and begins to decline slowly. Obviously, it is the decrease in supply that worries people.
This researcher from Sweden considered that one of the things that helped predict the future of oil fields is the few giant fields among them. These huge fields represent a small number of fields, only one percent, but together they produce sixty percent of the world’s oil. He studied what supplies are like from those giant fields, most of which have been producing oil for more than fifty years. In addition, he used other information to calculate the time of peak oil production. First, he added to his calculations any recent discoveries made of new oil sources plus offshore oil production, oil sands, and heavy oil finds. He believes these figures corroborate a slightly longer period of time until oil supplies peak and begin their slow decline.
There are others who believe that his facts may be correct, but not based on the giant fields he talks about. These are researchers and scientists who still see oil reserves that are not being exploited and feel that the peak date for oil production is still several years away. They claim that among the oil available in the Gulf of Mexico, the South China Sea and West Africa there are at least another four hundred and fifty billion barrels found in addition to current reserves. Those who are concerned about the amounts of oil we use take a more cautious approach, warning that next year may very well see the oil supply peak and that we should seek other sources of energy before we run out.
